Crypto Price Forecasts, When To Buy In The Bear Market – Blockchain Founder

  • Richard Heart says that bitcoin is trending down 85% from its all-time high and ether even lower.
  • He adds that inflation and interest rate hikes are adding noise to this crypto cycle.
  • He believes investors should buy the dip in ether instead of bitcoin.

May 4 marked a milestone in the downward trend of the stock market after the

Federal Reserve

announced a 0.5% rate increase, its second increase this cycle and the largest since 2000. Cryptocurrencies have also been hit: as of Wednesday, bitcoin had fallen as much as 26% to roughly $29,500. , and ethereum down about 31% to $2,000 .

How low both can go is anyone’s guess at this point. But one person who has nailed it in the past is Richard Heart. The founder of Hex, an ethereum-based token that rewards investors for participating, prides himself on calling the highs and lows of the crypto market.

For example, on December 19, 2017, he tweeted that cash was flowing out of bitcoin, marking the beginning of an altcoin season. This usually follows a cycle that starts with the price peaking for bitcoin and then altcoins before the entire market crashes. In fact, bitcoin had been in a four-day downtrend that eventually turned into a four-year slump.

bear market


In 2019, he told an audience at a summit that Bitcoin would be at $60,000 in a year or two. In November 2021, bitcoin reached its all-time high when it nearly hit $70,000 before falling 56% YTD.

He told Insider that he uses a combination of technical analysis and fundamentals to predict when market trends will change. One rule, in particular, is “buy the rumor and sell the news.” This means that periods of speculation about an upcoming event are good times to place bets, but once the news is confirmed, get out.

For example, in 2017, bitcoin’s all-time high was the day the Chicago Mercantile Exchange launched bitcoin futures. A similar event occurred in 2021 when bitcoin’s all-time high was the day Coinbase was listed on the Nasdaq, Heart recalled.

“And so Bitcoin went big in 2021 because of institutional buying pressure against the Coinbase listing, and that pushed Bitcoin up, pushed up Grayscale Trust, pushed up Coinbase,” said Heart.

By the time a coin reaches the top, everyone has already bought and there is nothing left to do but sell, he noted. She likened it to buyer’s remorse. If you’re the guy who won the auction, it means no one was willing to pay more.

Even meme coins follow the same pattern. For example, dogecoin (DOGE) was peaking when investors anticipated Elon Musk’s mention of the cryptocurrency during an episode of Saturday Night Live that he was to host on May 8. day. To date, it is still 86% below its peak.

Bet on a complicated market

Economic factors could have additional impacts on the crypto market. Inflation could prevent cryptocurrencies from crashing as much as in previous cycles. On the other hand, increases in interest rates could cause cryptocurrencies to plunge further than historically observed, he said.

Another thing to keep in mind is that digital assets are speculative and correlated to the stock market. Since you don’t need to buy bitcoin to pay for rent or produce, there’s no base demand, Heart said.

“We’re going to keep going down as long as the stock market goes down, unless it’s a new project,” Heart said. “Some newer projects will be able to beat bear market pressure, but the price of the vast majority of assets will contract as interest rates rise and the stock market falls.”

Right now, investors should sit in cash and wait for it to bottom out, Heart said. While timing any market is incredibly difficult for any investor, Heart says bitcoin’s bottom line can be calculated in two main ways.

The first and best way is after an 80% to 85% drop from peak prices, he said. Historical trends show a gradual increase in the price of bitcoin after a halving event, which is when the amount of BTC per block is reduced. This usually occurs every four years and signals a reduction in supply, followed by an increase in price.

The price continues to rise sharply until Bitcoin falls to around 85% of its total value, Heart said. Based on this metric, he estimates that the bitcoin bottom will fall between $10,600 and $10,350. However, in an effort to take advantage of the drop, Heart said that $11,000 is a good entry.

The second way to know if it’s time to go back in is when enough time has passed. This is typically 365 days after an all-time high, he said. In December 2017, bitcoin reached around $20,000 at its peak before falling below $4,000. It was not until March 2019 that it started to climb back above that resistance line.

“I care more about price than time,” Heart said. However, you can’t wait forever, she noted. So if there are no newer lows, it’s probably safe to say that’s the bottom.

However, even on sale, Heart still considers Bitcoin to be a “junk asset”, mainly because its returns decline compared to other digital assets. Specifically, ether has outperformed bitcoin three to one, he said. The Ethereum blockchain also has non-fungible tokens, stablecoins, and developers that build on it.

As for ether, Heart believes that it is one of the only cryptos that investors should buy during the bear market. He anticipates a bottom of around $750. However, the dip could be a flash in the pan. If he doesn’t want to miss out, a good ticket price would be around $1,000, Heart said.

Historically, ether’s highs and lows have been steeper than bitcoin’s, with lows around 95% from its all-time high.

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